Services PMI® at 52.7%; November 2023 Services ISM® Report On Business®

Business Activity Index at 55.1%; New Orders Index at 55.5%; Employment Index at 50.7%; Supplier Deliveries Index at 49.6%

TEMPE, Ariz., Dec. 5, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — Economic activity in the services sector expanded in November for the 11th consecutive month as the Services PMI^® registered 52.7 percent, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM^® Report On Business^®. The sector has grown in 41 of the last 42 months, with the lone contraction in December 2022.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) Services Business Survey Committee: “In November, the Services PMI^® registered 52.7 percent, 0.9 percentage point higher than October’s reading of 51.8 percent. The composite index indicated growth in November for the 11th consecutive month after a reading of 49.2 percent in December 2022, which was the first contraction since May 2020 (45.4 percent). The Business Activity Index registered 55.1 percent; a 1-percentage point increase compared to the reading of 54.1 percent in October. The New Orders Index expanded in November for the 11th consecutive month after contracting in December for the first time since May 2020; the figure of 55.5 percent equals the October reading.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 49.6 percent, 2.1 percentage points higher than the 47.5 percent recorded in October. The index remained in contraction territory for the second consecutive month, indicating that supplier delivery performance was ‘faster’ in contrast to the ‘slowing’ status in September. In the last 10 months, the average reading of 48.1 percent (with a low of 45.8 in March) reflects the fastest supplier delivery performance since June 2009, when the index registered 46 percent. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM^® Report On Business^® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Prices Index registered 58.3 percent in November, a 0.3-percentage point decrease from the October reading of 58.6 percent. The Inventories Index returned to growth in November, registering 55.4 percent, an increase of 5.9 percentage points from October’s figure of 49.5 percent. The Inventory Sentiment Index (62.2 percent, up 7.8 percentage points from October’s reading of 54.4 percent) expanded for the seventh consecutive month. The Backlog of Orders Index contracted in November and registered 49.1 percent, a 1.8-percentage point decrease compared to the October reading of 50.9 percent.

“Fifteen industries reported growth in November. The Services PMI^®, by being above 50 percent for the 11th month after a single month of contraction and a prior 30-month period of expansion, continues to indicate sustained growth for the sector, and at a slightly faster rate in November.”

Nieves continues, “The services sector had a slight uptick in growth in November, attributed to the increase in business activity and slight employment growth. Respondents’ comments vary by both company and industry. There is continuing concern about inflation, interest rates and geopolitical events. Rising labor costs and labor constraints remain employment-related challenges.”

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE 
The 15 services industries reporting growth in November — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Health Care & Social Assistance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Transportation & Warehousing; Retail Trade; Utilities; Accommodation & Food Services; Other Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Finance & Insurance; Public Administration; Construction; Wholesale Trade; and Educational Services. The three industries reporting a decrease in the month of November are: Information; Mining; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

• “Restaurant sales and traffic trends are consistent with the previous month and at our annual seasonal lows — should pick up again in December. We continue to trend positive to pre-pandemic and last year.” [Accommodation & Food Services]
• “Opportunities across the construction industry remains strong. The labor market for skilled trades workers is tight.” [Construction]
• “Supplies and merchandise are holding steady.” [Educational Services]
• “Business conditions remain steady to the end of 2023. Annual cost escalations are a bit higher than planned, more than 5 percent versus 3 percent due to overall economic conditions and concerns.” (Finance & Insurance)
• “Signs of recovery are on the horizon — (profit) margins remain tight, but revenue is improving and labor appears to be stabilizing. Supply chains are operating well, but a few major manufacturers continue to show signs of constraints that have persisted for some time. Capital investment remains constrained; however, optimism has returned for a turnaround in calendar year 2024.” [Health Care & Social Assistance]
• “There are fewer new projects in comparison to last month and November 2022. Customers are not requesting quotes for new services.” [Information]
• “Customers are conservative in spending, so competition to maintain market share is tight.” [Management of Companies & Support Services]
• “Fourth-quarter revenues lower than projected. Seeing negative revenues trend into the first quarter of the new year. We remain positive yet concerned about 2024.” [Professional, Scientific & Technical Services]
• “Prices for most items increasing, but only slightly. Increase in pricing for services much more noticeable and impactful on the organization.” [Public Administration]
• “Candidate expectations during the hiring process have made staffing up more difficult.” [Retail Trade]
• “Solid activity heading into the final stretch of the fourth quarter.” [Transportation & Warehousing]
• “Labor, equipment and material price escalation requests are increasing, both through existing contracts as well as re-pricing of markets via requests for proposal.” [Utilities]
• “A comparably flat month of business activity — no major swings one way or the other. Inventories in our extended supply chain look healthy, and fill rates are improving.” [Wholesale Trade]

Services ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Employment and Prices indexes. Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE, AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Electrical Components; Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) Equipment; Labor (36); Labor — Contract (3); Labor — Construction; Labor Cost — Technical Workers; Oriented Strand Board (OSB) Panels; MRO; Personal Protective Equipment (PPE); Plumbing Supplies; and Professional Services.

Commodities Down in Price
Caustic Soda (2); Freight; Fuel (2); Gasoline; Gas Related Products; Lumber (2); Steel Products; and Soybean Oil.

Commodities in Short Supply
Building Materials; Electrical Components (8); Labor (13); Labor — Construction (3); Transformers (15); and Vehicles (3).

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

NOVEMBER 2023 SERVICES INDEX SUMMARIES

Services PMI^®
In November, the Services PMI^® registered 52.7 percent, a 0.9-percentage point increase compared to the October reading of 51.8 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates the services sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates it is generally contracting.

A Services PMI^® above 49.9 percent, over time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the November Services PMI^® indicates the overall economy is growing for the 11th consecutive month after one month of contraction in December 2022. Nieves says, “The past relationship between the Services PMI^® and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI^® for November (52.7 percent) corresponds to a 1-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis.”

SERVICES PMI^® HISTORY

Business Activity
ISM^®‘s Business Activity Index registered 55.1 percent in November, an increase of 1 percentage point from the reading of 54.1 percent in October, indicating growth for the 42nd consecutive month. The Business Activity Index has been in expansionary territory ever since it recovered from its pandemic lows. Comments from respondents include: “End of the year elective procedures” and “Holiday retail sales now ramping up.”

The 11 industries reporting an increase in business activity for the month of November — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Finance & Insurance; Transportation & Warehousing; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Utilities; Retail Trade; Public Administration; and Educational Services. The four industries reporting a decrease in business activity for the month of November are: Mining; Information; Construction; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

New Orders
ISM^®‘s New Orders Index registered 55.5 percent, the same reading registered in October. The index indicated expansion for the 11th consecutive month after contracting in December 2022, ending a string of 30 consecutive months of growth. Comments from respondents include: “Spending remaining 2023 funding, preparing orders for 2024” and “Due to end of the year, companies are gearing up for the first quarter of 2024.” Also: “Equipment and components orders are being placed to ensure on-time delivery.”

The 11 industries reporting an increase in new orders for the month of November — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Finance & Insurance; Public Administration; Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; Educational Services; and Utilities. The two industries reporting a decrease in new orders for the month of November are: Information; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

Employment
Employment activity in the services sector grew in November for the sixth consecutive month after contracting in May, with three consecutive months of growth before that. The Employment Index registered 50.7 percent, up 0.5 percentage point from the October figure of 50.2 percent. Comments from respondents include: “We have lost employees due to normal attrition and are having issues backfilling these positions” and “The labor market remains very competitive.” Also: “Trying to get to full staff levels.”

The 10 industries reporting an increase in employment in November — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Construction; Accommodation & Food Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Other Services; Utilities; Retail Trade; Wholesale Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The five industries reporting a decrease in employment in November are: Finance & Insurance; Mining; Information; Public Administration; and Educational Services.

Supplier Deliveries
The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated faster performance for the second consecutive month in November, registering 49.6 percent, up 2.1 percentage points from the 47.5 percent recorded in October. The index has been in “faster” territory in 10 of the last 12 months. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, while a reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. Comments from respondents include: “Manufacturers have fewer backlog orders, so they are able to process orders faster” and “Easing of supply chain constraints.”

The six industries reporting slower deliveries in November — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Utilities; Transportation & Warehousing; Educational Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The six industries reporting faster supplier deliveries for the month of November — listed in order — are: Information; Construction; Management of Companies & Support Services; Wholesale Trade; Finance & Insurance; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. Six industries reported no change in deliveries in November.

Inventories
The Inventories Index grew in November after contracting the previous month. The reading of 55.4 percent was a 5.9-percentage point increase compared to the 49.5 percent reported in October. Of the total respondents in November, 46 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: “Beginning to build for holiday demand” and “We have more standing inventory, as capacity has increased but sales have not.”

The eight industries reporting an increase in inventories in November — listed in order — are: Other Services; Public Administration; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Retail Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Health Care & Social Assistance; Utilities; and Educational Services. The six industries reporting a decrease in inventories in November — listed in order — are: Mining; Information; Finance & Insurance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Transportation & Warehousing; and Wholesale Trade.

Prices
Prices paid by services organizations for materials and services increased in November for the 78th consecutive month. The Prices Index registered 58.3 percent, 0.3 percentage point lower than the 58.6 percent registered in October. The November reading is the 17th in a row near or below 70 percent (with nine straight months below 60 percent), following 10 straight months of readings near or above 80 percent.

Eleven services industries reported an increase in prices paid during the month of November, in the following order: Public Administration; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Educational Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; Wholesale Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Utilities; Finance & Insurance; and Retail Trade. The three industries reporting a decrease in prices for November are: Mining; Accommodation & Food Services; and Transportation & Warehousing.

NOTE: Commodities reported as up in price and down in price are listed in the commodities section of this report.

Backlog of Orders
The ISM^® Services Backlog of Orders Index contracted in November after growing in October. The index reading of 49.1 percent is 1.8 percentage points lower than the 50.9 percent reported in October. Of the total respondents in November, 54 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders. Respondent comments include: “Due to supply chain improvement, backlogs are under control” and “Suppliers are making good progress clearing up back orders.”

The four industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in November are: Finance & Insurance; Transportation & Warehousing; Utilities; and Public Administration. The five industries reporting a decrease in order backlogs in November are: Information; Wholesale Trade; Educational Services; Construction; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. Nine industries reported no change in backlogs in November.

New Export Orders
Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the U.S. by domestically based companies increased in November after a significant decline in October preceded by six consecutive months of expansion. The New Export Orders Index registered 53.6 percent, a 4.8-percentage point increase from the 48.8 percent reported in October. Of the total respondents in November, 74 percent indicated they do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the U.S.

The six industries reporting an increase in new export orders in November — listed in order — are: Educational Services; Mining; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Information; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The two industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in November are: Utilities; and Transportation & Warehousing. Ten industries reported no change in new export orders in November.

Imports
The Imports Index registered 53.7 percent in November, 6.3 percentage points lower than October’s reading of 60 percent. The index has indicated expansion in 13 of the last 15 months, with the only contraction in March and an “unchanged” status (a reading of 50 percent) in May. Seventy-two percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not track the use of, imported materials.

The six industries reporting an increase in imports for the month of November — listed in order — are: Retail Trade; Educational Services; Construction; Management of Companies & Support Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The only industry to report a decrease in imports in November is Wholesale Trade. Eleven industries reported no change in imports in November.

Inventory Sentiment
The ISM^® Services Inventory Sentiment Index grew for the seventh consecutive month in November after one month of contraction in April, preceded by four consecutive months of growth and four months of contraction from August to November 2022. The index registered 62.2 percent, a 7.8-percentage point increase from October’s figure of 54.4 percent. This reading indicates that respondents feel their inventories are too high when correlated to business activity levels.

The 11 industries reporting sentiment that their inventories were too high in November — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Mining; Other Services; Wholesale Trade; Construction; Utilities; Educational Services; Information; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Public Administration. The three industries reporting a feeling that their inventories were too low in November are: Transportation & Warehousing; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

About This Report
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report’s information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of November 2023.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of supply executives in the services sector based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM^® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation
The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® (formerly the Non-Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^®) is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Services Business Survey Committee (formerly Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee) is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry’s contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Services Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services). The data are weighted based on each industry’s contribution to GDP. According to the BEA estimates for 2021 GDP (released December 22, 2022), the six largest services sectors are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Government; Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; and Finance & Insurance.

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response and the diffusion index. Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.

The Services PMI^® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the services economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

A Services PMI^® above 49.9 percent, over time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 49.9 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 49.9 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline.

The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® survey is sent out to Services Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on U.S. operations for the current month. ISM^® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM^® then compiles the report for release on the third business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

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About Institute for Supply Management^®
Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) is the first and leading not-for-profit professional supply management organization worldwide. Its community of more than 50,000 in more than 100 countries manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 by practitioners, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM empowers and leads the profession through the ISM^® Report On Business^®, its highly-regarded certification and training programs, corporate services, events, and assessments. The ISM^® Report On Business^®, Manufacturing, Services, and Hospital, are three of the most reliable economic indicators available, providing guidance to supply management professionals, economists, analysts, and government and business leaders. For more information, please visit: www.ismworld.org.

The full text version of the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® is posted on ISM^®‘s website at www.ismrob.org on the third business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET. The one exception is in January, the report is released on the fourth business day of the month.

The next Services ISM^® Report On Business^® featuring December 2023 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Friday, January 5, 2024.

*Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.

SOURCE Institute for Supply Management